Polls like this make me concerned:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html
But we are likely pessimistic because we are 2016-shy:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/if-trump-is-down-in-the-polls-why-do-so-many-americans-think-hell-win/
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