Two architects of the Paris Agreement are presenting a pair of possible scenarios for the Earth's climate in 2050 — one in which we've met the carbon reduction targets laid out in the agreement, and one in which we've failed.
- The authors argue we have a decade left to pick which path the planet will take: catastrophe or hope.
Background: Former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres and climate diplomat Tom Rivett-Carnac were instrumental in guiding the Paris climate accord, which committed countries to reducing carbon emissions sufficiently to keep global temperature rise below at least 2° C by 2100.
What's new: In their book published yesterday, "The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis," the pair sketch out what the climate could look like by mid-century, depending on whether we meet the Paris goals.
- If we succeed, they foresee a world where forests cover half the land surface, air pollution has disappeared and fossil fuels have been eliminated.
- If we fail, warming will be on a pace for a 3°C increase by 2050, the air will become unbreathable and the very future of human civilization will be in doubt.
What they're saying: "If we continue where we are now, we are going to be irreparably going down a course of constant destruction," Figueres told The Guardian. Altering that path will require sharp technological and political change, especially in the United States.
The bottom line: The choices made in 2020 will help decide the climate in 2050.
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