Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Why the "tax cuts for the rich stimulate the economy" conservative mantra is bullshit

Article by Nick Hanauer (founder of Civic Action, zillionaire):


The Republican tax plan is a scam—a massive and destructive financial giveaway masquerading as pro-growth tax reform. Which is why our first response must be to demand not one penny of tax cuts for big corporations and rich guys like me. In fact, if I were Benevolent Dictator, I would substantially raise taxes on myself and my wealthy friends. Why? It is the only way to sustainably grow the economy, boost productivity, increase business opportunities and create more and better jobs.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: That’s crazy talk! For decades, rich guys like me have been selling you tax cuts on the merits of pure economic stimulus. The rich are “job creators,” we’ve told you. The more money and incentives we wealthy few have to invest in creating jobs, the better the economy is for everybody—especially you.

That’s a lie.

There is is simply no empirical evidence nor plausible economic mechanism to support the claim that cutting top tax rates spurs economic growth. When President Bill Clinton hiked taxes, the economy boomed. When President George W. Bush slashed taxes, the economy ultimately collapsed. It wasn’t until after most of the Bush tax cuts expired during the Obama administration that the post-Great Recession recovery started to pick up steam—an ongoing recovery that, as uneven as it has been, has grown into one of the longest economic expansions in U.S. history.

And then, of course, there’s Kansas.

In 2012, Kansas Governor Sam Brownback famously embarked on what he called “a real live experiment,” pitting pure trickle-down theory against economic reality. Unfortunately for Kansans, reality won. Kansas has dramatically underperformed its neighboring states and the nation as a whole both in economic growth and in job creation since slashing taxes on individuals and corporations to as low as zero. Compare that to California, which in 2012 elicited the usual apocalyptic warnings from trickle-downers by daring to raise its top income tax rate to a highest-in-the-nation 13.3 percent. By 2015, California had the fastest-growing economy in the nation. Kansas? Dead last.

And the evidence is more than just anecdotal. Multi-decade statistical reviews by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, and the highly-regarded Brookings Institution have all failed to find any negative correlation between top tax rates and growth. And the same holds true of every other economic indicator the trickle-downers like to go on about: tax revenue growth, investment growth, employment growth, productivity growth, real median income growth. If they show any statistically significant correlation between top tax rates and growth, the slope is positive, suggesting that raising taxes on the rich is actually pro-growth. “The argument that income tax cuts raise growth is repeated so often that it is sometimes taken as gospel,” the Brookings authors conclude. “However, theory, evidence, and simulation studies tell a different and more complicated story.”

President Trump boasts that the “biggest winners” from his tax cuts for the rich “will be the everyday American workers as jobs start pouring into our country, as companies start competing for American labor, and as wages start going up at levels that you haven't seen in many years." But the Republicans’ problem is that they have economic cause and effect reversed: Low wages and rising inequality are not symptoms of slow growth, low wages and rising inequality are the disease that causes slow growth—and inequality cannot be cured by creating even more inequality. In reality, our modern technological economy is best understood as an evolutionary feedback loop between innovation and demand. Innovation is the process through which we evolve new solutions to human problems, while consumer demand is the mechanism through which the market selects and propagates successful innovations. And it is economic inclusion—the full participation of as many people as possible in as many ways as possible, as innovators, entrepreneurs, workers and robust consumers—that drives both innovation and demand. The more we invest in the American people—in our wages, our education, our healthcare and our infrastructure—the more dynamic that feedback loop, and thus the faster and more prosperous our economy grows. But the Trump/Ryan tax cuts—which promise to slash rates for the wealthy and the corporations they run—would do nothing to increase innovation or demand.

Today, wealthy corporations and investors already have more money than we know what to do with—literally trillions of dollars of hoarded cash just sitting in U.S. bank accounts doing absolutely nothing—and yes, that includes the several trillion dollars of foreign earnings the Trump administration wants to “repatriate” tax free. The truth is, these “overseas” reserves are largely an accounting trick. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, much of this money is already held in U.S. bank deposits, in U.S. Treasury notes, and in dollar-dominated corporate securities. That’s why the last time Congress enacted a foreign earnings “tax holiday,” far from boosting the economy, the biggest corporate beneficiaries actually cut thousands of domestic jobs, choosing instead to funnel their after-tax windfall into (surprise!) stock buybacks and dividends. Every “$1 increase in repatriations was associated with an increase of almost $1 in payouts to shareholders,” Harvard and MIT researchers concluded. Obviously, a tax holiday can’t possibly deliver an economic boost from bringing home dollars that are already here.

The real problem with our economy is that we are concentrating wealth in the hands of people who aren’t spending or investing it, while starving working and middle-class Americans of the ability to invest in themselves—not to mention sapping the consumer spending power that accounts for 70 percent of GDP. We rich Americans may not all be idle, but these days, much of our money is—and you will not get it flowing back through the economy again by cutting our taxes even further. I already earn about 1,000 times more per hour than the average American, but I couldn’t possibly buy 1,000 times more stuff. I only own so many pairs of pants. My family and I can only eat three meals a day. We enjoy a luxurious lifestyle, but we already own several houses, a private jet, and one too many yachts (turns out, the optimal number is two). Cutting our taxes will make us richer, but it won’t incentivize me or my venture capital partners to spend or invest more than we already do. What’s holding us back isn’t a shortage of cash, but rather a shortage of demand—from you.

That’s why I join the Not One Penny campaign in opposing any effort to cut taxes on wealthy people like me. The American tax code is already rigged in favor of the rich and powerful, and the Trump/Ryan tax plan would only make it worse. If we truly want an economy that works better for all Americans, we need to move in the other direction.

We should create more tax brackets, not fewer, with substantially higher tax rates on our wealthiest households and our largest inherited estates. As for simplifying the tax code, here’s an idea: Let’s treat all income equally. For example, I’d eliminate the cap of $127,000 on payroll taxes, apply it to all income, and then slash the rate, increasing the spending power of most Americans. Rich people like me make most of our money from dividends and capital gains, and it’s just plain crazy that I pay a lower tax rate on investment income than a truck driver or school teacher pays on their hard-earned wages or a small businessperson pays on her hard-won profits. As for the corporate income tax rate, cut it if you want—but only if those cuts are more than offset by eliminating corporate tax loopholes. As a percent of federal tax revenue, corporate income taxes already account for only a third of what they did in the 1950s, despite years of record profits. What corporate America needs and deserves is a fairer, simpler, more predictable tax code, not a cheaper one.

More importantly, what our economy needs now, at this moment in time, is a massive reinvestment in expanding and enriching the working and middle class. Tax the rich to put money back in the hands of the American people, and corporations will expand production and payrolls to meet the resulting spike in consumer demand. Tax the rich to invest in roads, transit, bridges, healthcare, schools and basic research, and America will rebuild the physical and human infrastructure on which innovation and thus our collective prosperity relies. Tax the rich not just because it is fair, but because experience teaches us that in America fairness and growth always go hand in hand.

The trickle-down myth on which the Trump/Ryan tax plan relies represents much more than just a fundamental mischaracterization of how market capitalism works. It is, in fact, a scam and an intimidation tactic. When rich guys like me tell you that if you cut our taxes we’ll invest in creating more and better jobs, that is a scam. When we tell you that if you raise our taxes (or your wages) you might lose your job, that is a threat. Either way, if we can get you to believe that taxing the rich is bad for you, then we will get richer. The beauty of this con job is that it hides our true intent: We’re rich, you’re poor, and we’d like it to stay that way. And like any good con, rather than stealing your money, we just persuade you to hand it over voluntarily.

But we’ve been playing this con so long that we rich folk have started to con ourselves into believing that there is no limit to how much we can enrich ourselves at your expense. This epidemic of greed is crushing new investment opportunities before they can arise. The irony is that it was always you who enriched us, not the other way around. Back when we paid our fair share and invested in growing the middle class, prosperity always trickled up.

So please, don’t just raise taxes on me because it’s good for you. Do it for me and for all my rich friends. Raise our taxes. And watch America grow.

“I Hate Everyone In The White House!”: Trump Seethes As Advisers Fear The President Is “Unraveling”

Is Trump losing it? Is this a good thing or a potential disaster?

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/10/donald-trump-is-unraveling-white-house-advisers

Energy Companies Don't Like the Clean Power Plan — or President Trump's Plan to Kill It

At least industry is pushing back against it, and the EPA has to move against global warming:

http://time.com/4976455/clean-power-plan-repeal-scott-pruitt-trump/

Trump Wanted Tenfold Increase in Nuclear Arsenal, Surprising Military

A toddler playing with a loaded gun:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-wanted-dramatic-increase-nuclear-arsenal-meeting-military-leaders-n809701

Trump's abysmal 16 percent approval among Latinos is sending GOP strategists into a panic

This is nice to see:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/10/10/1705864/-Trump-s-abysmal-16-percent-approval-among-Latinos-is-sending-GOP-strategists-into-a-panic

The Case for Impeaching Donald Trump Is Real and Serious. Here’s Why.

There are a LOT of reasons:

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Voting Rights Roundup: GOP launches group to raise tens of millions for 2020s redistricting battles

This is one of the biggest political issues of our time:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/29/1702759/-Voting-Rights-Roundup-GOP-launches-group-to-raise-tens-of-millions-for-2020s-redistricting-battles

Texas taxes for family planning services were illegally spent by forced-birther group

The end result? "Rates of gonorrhea, syphilis and chlamydia are on the rise. Texas health officials report alarming “clusters” of HIV transmission popping up in 16 areas of the state.  The rate of second-trimester abortions, which are more painful and expensive, is on the rise as women in the state have more difficulty getting contraception and early-term abortions. Texas now has the worst maternal mortality rate in the developed world and has fallen behind the rest of the country when it comes to the decline in teen births. The state’s Medicaid system is straining as the number of births to low-income women rose, in part because they lack affordable or convenient access to contraception."

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/28/1702514/-Complaint-Texas-taxes-okayed-for-family-planning-services-diverted-to-crisis-pregnancy-centers

Media framing of Las Vegas shooter shows the bias in how violence perpetrated by whites is covered

And now it's media hypocrisy. Should white men now apologize for the Las Vegas shooting?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/10/3/1703725/-Media-framing-of-Las-Vegas-shooter-shows-the-bias-in-how-violence-perpetrated-by-whites-is-covered

How Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump, Jr., Avoided a Criminal Indictment

I see it runs in the family:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-ivanka-trump-and-donald-trump-jr-avoided-a-criminal-indictment

Rep. Tim Murphy, popular with pro-life movement, urged abortion in affair, texts suggest

Hypocrisy thy name is Republican:

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2017/10/03/rep-tim-Murphy-pro-life-sought-abortion-affair-shannon-edwards-susan-mosychuk-pennsylvania-chief-of-staff-congress-emails-texts/stories/201710030018

Earth May Be Close to 'Threshold of Catastrophe'

This is painfully sobering:

https://www.livescience.com/60578-sixth-mass-extinction-may-be-inevitable.html

Monday, September 18, 2017

The American left has its own Tea Party, and it’s coming for Donald Trump

Turnabout is fair play:

https://qz.com/1065652/the-american-left-has-its-own-tea-party-and-its-coming-for-donald-trump/

How To Win A Nuclear Standoff

How to gauge the risks:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-win-a-nuclear-standoff/amp/

Study Says Americans Mistrust One Another

No duh, but this puts some numbers on it:

http://www.atheistrepublic.com/news/study-says-americans-mistrust-one-another

Taxpayers billed $1,092 for an official’s two-night stay at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club

Corruption, thy name is Trump:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/taxpayers-billed-1092-for-an-officials-two-night-stay-at-trumps-mar-a-lago-club/2017/09/15/e3e5dfdc-97c6-11e7-82e4-f1076f6d6152_story.html

Experts Say the Use of Private Email by Trump’s Voter Fraud Commission Isn’t Legal

The next scandal of the day:

https://www.propublica.org/article/experts-say-the-use-of-private-email-by-trumps-voter-fraud-commission-isnt-legal

Harvard psychiatrist Lance Dodes: Donald Trump is a “sociopath” and “a very sick individual”

No holds barred:

http://www.salon.com/2017/09/12/harvard-psychiatrist-lance-dodes-donald-trump-is-a-sociopath-and-a-very-sick-individual/

House Republicans desperate for a legislative win to stave off 'mass exodus' in 2018

Schadenfreude!

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/14/1698578/-House-Republicans-desperate-for-a-legislative-win-to-stave-off-mass-exodus-in-2018

Database: the link between extremism and islamic scripture

A useful collection of data against Islam (long document, slow loading):

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IIheRz1JI6J-D_P4K7scvvWJKBVt8kLeUsCj2PwHV2E/mobilebasic

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Islamic Scholar Outlines Islam's Intentions for America

Islam's scripture is more brutal toward non-Muslims than Christianity's is against non-Christians, which makes their fundamentalists even worse:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JJeVLTGYX8&feature=youtu.be

Trump is trolling conservatives. Here are 4 theories why.

Or he's just an idiot. Cozying up to Democrats will piss off his base, and he lost Democrats long ago:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/14/politics/trump-pelosi-schumer-deal/index.html

It's finally dawned on Trump how much people 'hate' him — and he's pivoting to a new strategy

Interesting, but I'll believe it when it lasts more than a week. Maybe:

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-pivots-after-realizing-how-much-people-f-ing-hate-him-2017-9

Watch Trump Fans Get Trolled Into Saying What They Really Think

The stupid...it hurts....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jordan-klepper-trump-rally-opposition_us_59b8b9c6e4b02da0e13d5897

How American Foreign Policy Inspires Resistance, Insurgency, and Terrorism

http://bigthink.com/videos/stephen-walt-how-american-foreign-policy-inspires-resistance-insurgency-and-terrorism

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

More Evidence Donald Trump ‘Pee Tape’ Exists: Russian Politician Reveals That Russia Has Blackmail Material

I'm not into pee porn, but I'd pay $100 to see Trump watching it happen:

Those 3% of scientific papers that deny climate change? A review found them all flawed

So even those climate change deniers who claim those 3% of studies prove them right just had the rug pulled out from under their justification:

https://qz.com/1069298/the-3-of-scientific-papers-that-deny-climate-change-are-all-flawed/

Trump is holding DREAMers hostage for his border wall with Mexico

What a dick:

https://qz.com/1070109/daca-reversal-trump-is-holding-dreamers-hostage-for-his-mexico-border-wall/

Boom—evidence shows Trump added 49 for-profit businesses to his empire since running/taking office

More evidence of corruption:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/5/1696137/-New-report-shows-Trump-added-49-businesses-to-his-empire-since-running-winning-taking-office

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Trump, GOP demand blue state payback

Liberals subsidize conservatives, yet conservatives want liberals to pay even more:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/3/1694868/-Trump-GOP-demand-blue-state-payback

There should be a big "fuck you" in response.

Monday, August 28, 2017

Florida's Textbooks Are a New Battleground in America's Fight Over Facts

Since when should minority dissenting opinions from non-scientists have any say in science topics in schools?

http://time.com/4910125/textbook-law-florida/

You don't teach astrology in astronomy classes, nor alchemy in physics classes, nor phrenology in neuroscience classes, nor magic in physics classes!

Thursday, August 24, 2017

Disco isn’t dead: It’s being used as a secret weapon for disarming British neo-Nazis

A great way to troll white supremacists:

https://qz.com/1059410/disco-isnt-dead-its-being-used-as-a-secret-weapon-for-disarming-british-neo-nazis/

But this is the best:

http://www.upworthy.com/a-town-came-up-with-a-brilliant-hilarious-way-to-troll-neo-nazi-marchers-take-note

Democracy in North Carolina Could Disappear. Is Your State Next?

This is also scary:

http://time.com/4891560/north-carolina-elections-supreme-court/

Gerrymandering, voter suppression, sowing distrust in the major media sources, buying up local media to control their message... Getting the Dems into power is the only hope for reversing these trends.

Trump Unfit To Be President? There’s A Fast Way To Get Rid Of Him.

Unfortunately, Pence is in the way:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-remove-pence_us_599465e1e4b009141641dce9

Trump Takes Authoritarian Stance In Portraying Journalists As Anti-American Enemy

This is seriously dangerous. I wonder what the rabid, uneducated Trump supporters will do if and when Trump is kicked out of office? It'll be an utter shock to so many of them who believe the bullshit that he's doing such a great job:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-portrays-journalists-as-anti-american_us_599da653e4b0d8dde99a844c