From Axios:
For Trump to be right, you gotta believe...
- That Trump's instincts are better than the past half-century of his party's judgment, as well as the judgment of the economists who've studied the topic extensively, both historically and contemporaneously.
- That Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — the former majority leader, reflecting what the vast majority of Senate Republicans say privately — was wrong when he tweeted: "As I have always warned, tariffs are bad policy, and trade wars with our partners hurt working people most. Tariffs drive up the cost of goods and services. They are a tax on everyday working Americans."
- That a minimum 10% increase in taxes on all imports — and much higher taxes on goods that come from China, Vietnam and other leading trade partners — won't meaningfully increase prices for most Americans.
- That U.S. companies will be able to make the same products just as cheaply — and right away.
- That allies and adversaries hit with big tariffs will just suck it up rather than retaliate, or that they'll move en masse to negotiate new trade deals favorable to the U.S.
- That American influence and power overseas won't diminish when those same allies start doing more business with each other — or China.
- That Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was wrong when he said: "Our old relationship of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over. The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership ... is over. While this is a tragedy, it is also the new reality."
- That the U.S. stock market and economic growth will rise again amid a global trade war of choice.
- That recession forecasts by major financial institutions are wrong. And that the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ (U.S. stocks off $3 trillion yesterday — the biggest one-day drop since March 2020) are all wrong — or wildly overreacting.