A very, very, very dry future for the U.S. West

 From Axios:

A very, very, very dry future for the U.S. West

Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The American West is in the midst of a punishing drought, and long-term conditions are only expected to get worse. Why it matters: Much of the West has a deep history of decades-long "megadroughts" — and that was before the added drying effects of climate change. But with population in the region projected to continue growing, both water demand and carbon emissions risk an arid future for the West. By the numbers: According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 40% of the West is currently in a state of extreme or exceptional drought, the two most severe categories, and barely 10% of the region is altogether drought-free. And conditions aren't likely to improve in the near future given the ongoing contributions of climate change. NOAA's most recent Seasonal Drought Outlook predicts persistent dryness west of the Rockies, save for the Pacific Northwest, with drought affecting 74 million Americans. Where it stands: The driest parts of the American West are already in the grips of a "megadrought," defined as a prolonged drought lasting two or more decades. The ongoing drought is the result both of reduced precipitation, including less of the winter snowfall that replenishes water reserves, and punishingly high temperatures, which strips the soil of moisture. The big picture: The American West has a long history of recurring megadroughts that dates back to well before humans started putting carbon into the atmosphere. A study published last year used moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies to find evidence — backed by historical documents of the era — of a multidecadal megadrought in the U.S. Southwest during the 16th century. That megadrought was the worst in the region for at least 1,200 years — with the second-worst occurring over the past 20 years. What to watch: Drought is a product of how little rain might fall and how hot temperatures become, but also of how much water humans are taking from the environment. Even as the West is becoming drier, people are still flocking to the region — every decade between 1950 and 2010, population growth in the Desert Southwest was at least triple the overall U.S. rate. Arizona — which averages 13 inches of precipitation annually, compared to 38 inches for the U.S. as a whole — currently has the highest population growth rate in the country. This means that we're adding more and more people to the very region in the U.S. that has both a history of extreme, multidecadal drought and is set to get drier in the years to come thanks to climate change. The explosive growth of the U.S. West in the 20th century happened during an era that climatologists now believe was unusually wet for the region's history — and unlikely to recur in the future. Yes, but: Total water withdrawals in the U.S. actually declined 25% between the peak in 1980 and 2015 — one sign of our ability to decouple growth from water use. Multiple states are experimenting with seeding clouds to encourage more precipitation, a small-scale version of geoengineering that has some science behind it. And as Cornell University drought expert Toby Ault wrote last year: "Cutting CO2 emissions reduces drought risk." The bottom line: Multiple past civilizations have met their demise in part due to megadroughts, but with smarter water management and climate action, that doesn't have to be our fate.

2. American dry

U.S. Drought Monitor for March 16 for the continental U.S. Credit: The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor shows two-thirds of the continental U.S. — and nearly all of the West — in at least some state of drought. Details: The current drought began last year, which was the driest on record for Utah and Nevada, and among the driest for states like Colorado. "By intensity, it would be about as bad as the U.S. Drought Monitor has shown in the last 20 years," climatologist Brian Fuchs of the National Drought Mitigation Center told USA Today recently.

Government by democratic lottery

From Axios, an interesting way to fix our political gridlock:

Government by democratic lottery

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

A group is putting forward a unique way to break U.S. political gridlock — replace legislators with ordinary citizens chosen by democratic lottery. Why it matters: Government by democratic lottery may seem extreme — but so is the current period of partisan gridlock, which has made it increasingly difficult for the government to tackle long-term problems. How it works: Instead of regularly electing legislators, democratic lotteries would have representatives in legislative bodies chosen at random from the citizen body, albeit with adjustments to be made for the final selection to represent the demographic and ideological makeup of the population. The system is a throwback to how democracy worked at times in ancient Athens, where citizens — or at least free male citizens — were chosen by lot for political office. Context: The Athenians used democratic lotteries because they believed elections inevitably led to corruption and division, according to Adam Cronkright, a coordinator at the democratic lottery group of by for*. With this system, "there are no stump speeches, no attack ads, no campaigns, no political parties, because none of that matters with a democratic lottery," he says. Examples: This past fall, of by for* convened a citizens' panel in Michigan of 30 people chosen by democratic lottery. Citizens on the panel — who had vastly different political backgrounds — met remotely to debate action on COVID-19, one of the most divisive issues facing the country today. Despite their divisions, members were able to debate the issues and come up with policy recommendations that had over 70% support of the panel — significantly higher than much of what's passed in a deeply divided Congress. The catch: Beyond the constitutional changes that would be required to put any democratic lottery in place, the sheer complexity of the U.S. government goes far beyond what citizen-legislators in ancient Athens had to face. Trying to ensure that a democratic lottery selects a true cross-section of the American public would be a logistical and judicial headache. Yes, but: Removing elected representatives would cut off the oxygen of a growing number of politicians who seem more interested in social media posting than governing. The bottom line: Americans are accustomed to viewing the health of their democracy through the prism of elections, but coming after a year when the U.S. had the highest voter turnout in decades but remains dysfunctional, we may need to rethink that.

By the end of the century, summer weather could last half a year (and that's not a good thing)

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/23/weather/climate-change-hotter-summers-trnd/index.html

American Democracy Can't Survive Unless the Far Right Is Marginalized. Here's How to Do It

This is why I hope they come down HARD on the insurgents. Donald and most of the Republicans in Congress included:

https://time.com/5947962/reform-american-democracy-marginalize-far-right/

Jeanine Pirro Abruptly Ends Fox News Segment After Guest Praises Joe Biden

Faux News, the fact-free zone:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jeanine-pirro-david-leopold-interview_n_6057bba5c5b6bd95117db484

World Happiness Report

Very detailed, but the summary of happiest countries chart is near the top:

https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2021/happiness-trust-and-deaths-under-covid-19/

Scientists Stunned to Discover Plants Beneath Mile-Deep Greenland Ice – Why This Spells Trouble

https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-stunned-to-discover-plants-beneath-mile-deep-greenland-ice-and-why-this-is-so-troubling/

Rand Paul Gets Schooled On Coronavirus Variants After Calling Fauci’s Masks ‘Theater’

Even being a doctor doesn't prevent Republican lawmakers from being idiots:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fauci-schools-rand-paul-on-virus-variants-risks_n_605394cac5b6e32eb4b02fcc

New Analysis Shows Potential for “Solar Canals” in California – Advancing Both Renewable Energy and Water Conservation

This makes a lot of sense, even if it's too expensive to cover the entire length with solar panels and needs to be cut back some:

https://scitechdaily.com/new-analysis-shows-potential-for-solar-canals-in-california-advancing-both-renewable-energy-and-water-conservation/

How Industrial Fishing Creates More CO2 Emissions Than Air Travel

https://time.com/5947430/bottom-trawling-carbon-emissions-study/

Republicans Who Voted To Overturn Election Say Congress Should Stay Out Of Elections

I really despise hypocrisy:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/republicans-election-laws-states_n_6041564cc5b60208555d4c7a

House passes sweeping voting rights bill over GOP opposition

There is no excuse for voting against this:

https://apnews.com/article/bills-campaign-finance-voting-rights-legislation-elections-a74d9d8cce567d751021ed66cee2b85f

The Useful Idiot: Why We’re Not Done With Trump Yet

A long but very good reminder of the damage Trump has done, and what can be done about it:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-useful-idiot-not-gone-yet_n_6031b49ac5b66da5dba1e428